The Cassandra Complex: Paradoxes and Denial in a Finite World

by LEN PARKER

Tom Wessels notes in his book The Myth of Progress: “Prior to the publication of Rachel Carson's groundbreaking Silent Spring in 1962, the words “ecology” and “environment were probably [largely] unknown.”

Carson's scientific insight led her to ask: “The question is whether any civilization can wage relentless war on life without losing the right to be called civilized,” and unlike George W Bush who believed; ''Economic growth is key to environmental progress.'', Carson believed; “The control of nature is a phrase conceived in arrogance, born of the Neanderthal age of biology and philosophy ...” In hindsight, perhaps a little harsh on the Neanderthals.

In our finite, complex world of constant change and development we are constantly told that our future well-being depends on constant progress through ceaselessly increased efficiency, production and consumption as if our planetary resources were infinite.

Others believe human ingenuity, science and technology will always keep us ahead of the game and social collapse from resource depletion; the consequences of planetary pollution; crop failures; food and water shortages; climate change and global warming; ocean acidification; population explosion and the general economic crisis of capitalism. Whether this illusion arises from denial, or deliberate self-deception it is too important a question to ignore, and we do so at our peril.

To be in denial differs from the consequences suffered by the Greek Trojans who had no choice but to discount and ignore the warnings of the oracle Cassandra. We can chose!

Cassandra was one of the Trojan women in Greek Mythology. The daughter of the King and Queen of Troy: Priam and Hecuba.

In Greek, the name Cassandra means 'She who entangles men'. Legend has it that she was of great beauty who men lusted after – not reciprocated. She had, however, a gift of prophecy bestowed on her by the Gods.

Cassandra was able to foretell the future, and warned the people of the impending outcome of the Siege of Troy. The God Apollo was passionately in love with her and invited her to spend the night at his temple where snakes licked her ear giving her the gift of prophesy. However, when Apollo's love was not reciprocated he cursed her, ensuring that her gift would cause her nothing but anguish. Rather than strip her of the power of prediction he chose to ensure that no one would believe her prophesies.

Cassandra, however, foresaw the destruction of Troy, predicted the Trojan Horse and the death of Agamemnon and her own eventual murder, but nothing was done because of Apollo's curse.

Today there are amongst us those who are in denial of evidential, impending, profound, social change, along with the deliberate deceivers and learned idiots who discount warnings of capitalist collapse and environmental disaster and believe we can carry on with “business as usual”.

There is, however, much to learn from ancients and moderns alike, in the void between the self-delusion of clever individuals with a preoccupation for intellectual puzzles and paradoxes, and the common sense and logic of ordinary folk.

For example: even the simplest minded of us know that in a race between a ninety year old human on crutches and a tortoise - even if the tortoise was given a head start in race of limited distance, - the human would win (apart from the contrary fable of the race between the Hare and the Tortoise that some clever-Dick will now recall).

But this was a serious question for the ancient Greeks, particularly Zeno whose logical puzzle of Achilles and the Tortoise was one of the four great paradoxes attributed to him.

“Achilles is in a race against a tortoise that has been given a head start, and it is argued that Achilles, no matter how swiftly he may run, can never overtake the tortoise, no matter how slow it may be. By the time Achilles will have reached the initial position of the tortoise, the latter will have advanced some short distance; and by the time Achilles will have covered this distance, the tortoise will have advanced somewhat farther; and so on indefinitely, with the result that the swift Achilles can never overtake the slow tortoise.”

Most of us will know that in the real world, at least the one we inhabit, that Achilles would have zapped the tortoise no shit. So what is the problem?

Well: these legitimate paradoxical puzzles for the Greeks turn up in modern society as if they are a part of material reality.

Richard Heinberg in his book The End of Growth relates how that “The near-religious belief that economic growth depends not on energy and resources, but solely on increasing innovation, efficiency, trade and devision of labor, that can sometimes lead economists to say silly things.”

He references the late Julian Simon, a longtime business professor at the University of Illinois and fellow at the right-wing Cato Institute. “In his 1981 book The Ultimate Resource, Simon declared that natural resources are effectively infinite and that the process of resource substitution can go on forever. There can never be overpopulation, he declared, because having more people just means having more problem-solvers.”

“How can resources be infinite on a small planet such as ours?” asks Heinberg. “Easy, said Simon. “Just as there are infinitely many points on a one-inch line segment, so too there are infinitely many lines of division separating copper from non-copper, or oil from non-oil, or coal from non-coal in the earth. Therefore, we cannot reliable quantify how much copper, oil, coal etc...there really is in the world. If we can't measure how much we have of these materials, that means the amounts are not finite – thus they are infinite.”

Heinberg continues “It's a logical fallacy so blindingly obvious that you would think not a single vaguely intelligent reader would have let him get away with it. Clearly, an infinite number of dividing lines between copper and non-copper is not the same as an infinite quantity of copper. While a few critics pointed this out (notably Herman Daly), Simon's book was widely praised nevertheless. Why? Because Simon was saying something that many people wanted to believe.”

“Simon himself is gone, says Heinberg, but his way of thinking is alive and well in the works of Bjorn Lomberg, author of the best selling book The Skeptical Environmentalist… Lomberg insists that the free market is making the environment ever healthier, and will solve all our problems if we just stop scaring ourselves needlessly about running out of resources.”

Maybe climate change and capitalist collapse then are simply left-wing conspiracies?

Well, I would hardly think that US Admiral Hyman Rickover, father of the US nuclear submarine fleet, was some sort of Commie bastard - but I could be wrong.

“In 1957, Admiral Hyman Rickover gave “a sobering speech to a group of U.S. physicians in St. Paul, Minnesota. Rickover encouraged his audience to consider...their responsibilities to [their] descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age.” “Responsible living, he said, meant energy conservation, excellent education for all citizens, an new culture of self-denial, and higher taxes to fund a large more complex United States. The alternative was doubt, indecision, chaos and collapse.”

Rickover went on “Our civilization rests upon a technological base which requires enormous quantities of fossil fuels.”...”What assurance do we have that our energy needs will continue to be supplied by fossil fuels? The answer is – in the long run – none,” he said.

He went on to say how much of the land that was once wilderness was “now buried under cities, factories and suburban developments where each picture window looks out on nothing more inspiring than a neighbor's backyard...”

Rickover warned; The United States must undergo a transition. “Fossil fuels resemble capital in the bank. A prudent and responsible parent will use his capital sparingly in order to pass on to his children as much as possible of his inheritance. A selfish and irresponsible parent will squander it in riotous living and care not one wit how this offspring will fare.” (See Andrew Nikiforuk's 'The Energy of Slaves” for the above quotations).

While authorities in Auckland have procrastinated for more than 70 years about the electrification of a rail loop and faced the consequent grid-locked motor-ways, nothing has been done. While millions was spent on Consultants and various reports. We should remember, the automobile was responsible for suburban sprawl that covered over fertile land with concrete and tarseal. How did this come about?

I recall a railways' manager, at a transport conference here in Wellington, New Zealand after WW11, resisting the assault on rail stating that they could load a thousand wagons overnight to transport goods on the main-trunk line. Recently, I saw a train with seventy wagons of logs on the Whakatane Line. That could take that many trucks off the roads. So what happened?

We need to look overseas to the United States. “Until the 1940s both San Francisco and Los Angeles possessed well used electric trolley systems. Big oil, changed that. A shell firm financed by General Motors, Exxon and Firestone bought San Francisco's trolley system and then sold it with draconian conditions attached: the trolley cars had to be replaced with General Motors buses, running on Exxon gasoline and Goodyear Tires.”

“General Motors, Standard Oil of California and Firestone similarly dismantled L.A.'s electric train service. As journalist Carl Solberg would explain in Oil Power in 1976, 'In this fashion the big companies blotted out 100 electric railway systems in 45 cities – including New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, St. Louis and Salt Lake City.'”

Then: “In 1949 they were convicted of criminal conspiracy. The ring leader, General Motors' Treasurer H.C. Grossman, was fined one dollar.” (See Andew Nikiforuk, 'The Energy of Slaves' for quotes.)

With the collapse of the Wall Street Banks, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stern, Merrill Lynch and others, in 2008. and the bailout of “Too big to Jail” Goldman Sachs and AIG along with the Acquisition and Merger of others (with billions of dollars from the taxpaying public and Quantitative Easing) we now have even larger Super Banks. Threatened with bankruptcy, General Motors and Chrysler also became beneficiaries of the taxpayers “generosity.”

Some time ago a proposal was put forward here in New Zealand/Aotearoa by socialists for 'Free and Frequent Public Transport,' as an alternative to the continuation of our car culture and the endless expense of building and maintaining motorways. Money previously spent on fares for public transport would become freely available to be spent in retail shops, theatres, swimming pools, sports events and other activities, which in turn could be taxed.

Getting cars off the roads, would have reduced the number and cost to the State of serious traumas and deaths caused by car accidents (including to pedestrians), spinal and head injuries, the costs of funerals, loss of family income, increased insurance premiums, and maintenance of on-going care and services to paraplegics and brain damaged individuals, and continued family support. There would be a reduction in respiratory illnesses, heart diseases, cancers and deaths caused by atmospheric pollution – and other benefits.

Strangely, under capitalist “economics”, all these unnecessary accidents and costs are added to the GDP as indicators of progress.

Other benefits would include; less stress on bus drivers attempting to meet tight schedules in high density traffic, no expensive computer installations except for emergency needs, no ticketing distractions, as well as less road rage. There would of course be less resource depletion; of steel, rubber, synthetics and plastics in manufacturing of cars, and more conservation of energy including fossil fuels. Can't be done! Well there are trials being run in a number of major cities around the world right now of free and frequent public transport.

The above is about our own energy consuming Trojan Horse car culture, already installed within the city gate and our own psyche, while the battle for our future rages with many of us disarmed by being in kind of deluded rapture.

All that is needed is for us to be fully aroused from our social stupor and become conscious our own complicity and responsibility. Because what is holding us back is ourselves. But that means challenging the system of ideas that perpetuates this paradox and those who benefit from the chaos and carnage.

Cassandra was right! There were consequences for those Trojans who scoffed at her, as there will be for us. But unlike Cassandra we have a choice. We can change the future.

Tom Wessels says: “Large-scale change in complex systems never comes from the topdown; it always bubbles up from the bottom. That means that large-scale social, political, and economic change comes from the citizenry, whom elected officials will follow when its collective voice becomes loud enough.” Well history will tell if he is right. It may need more than a little shove.